The next installment of Kondratyev wave (table of content is here) is about Paul Volcker and the transition from Summer to Autumn.
The next article from the Kondratyev wave cycle (table of contents) is about Summer, the season when the unwelcome inflation develops and the stock market is in a bearish trend.
As the primary Guinea Pig for examining the K-wave is theUnited States I will avoid using the term hyperinflation, as back in 1970s US economy did […]
I’m just back from vacation and I’d like to publish something lite as a warm up, before I catch up with the news. I would like to make some trivial observations on the junk bond market.
Bernanke had spent June by draining the outstanding credit of Federal Reserve (check WSE for details). Maybe it was to punish hedge funds for oil speculation, maybe to scare investors from stocks to bond. The economy is suffocating from very expensive credit. By moving the yield on “risk-free” (explanation later) credit down the Feds are […]
After the introduction of the seasons of the Kondratyev wave we’ve proved the existence of the extra-long secular cycles that manifest themselves as the periodic swings in the relative debt level, monetary base, and stock market. But the more complicated task is to actually analyze the causation of those cycles.
The previous two posts on the Kondratiev Wave discussed the debt cycle and monetary base as the basis of the K-wave cycle. The goal of those articles is to show that there is nothing magical in the fact that the economy is experiencing secular cycles with the duration of 50+ years. In fact it’s not […]
In the previous article we’ve established the existence of the extra-long debt cycle, which consists of the accumulation and unwinding phases. The next step is to evaluate the trends in monetary aggregates and interest rates.
For reference, let’s repeat the Great Debt Cycle, i.e. debt/GDP cycle chart that we saw before:
This credit cycle is called Kodratieff […]
In the late 90’s a lot of banking clerks and bartenders with some brain quickly completed the Cobol courses to become programmers - new cool profession that already drained anyone with at least some computing experience into dot-com bubble and Y2k bubble. Then what one would call a “creative destruction” happened and a lot of […]
The future is pretty muddy now, which leaves some hope yet fears of invisible demons. One of the key features of the market economy that is important to keep in mind is that it is constantly healing itself, sometimes by few pills, sometimes by amputation. And the lack of pain and medication may hide a […]
“the investment desert is littered with the bones of those who bet on new paradigms” - Jeremy Grantham
It must be something unusual to happen to bring the attention. Few years ago I heard a story that Africa is considering to switch to wireless telephony because peasants are stealing wires for copper and any attempt to […]
The Yellow Brick Road
