Category Archives: Intermarket Analysis

Something about Dollar

Sunday, August 17, 2008

The principle of relativity, from Newtonian mechanics to Einstein/Lorentz/Poincaré theory of special relativity, has its roots in the basic principle that physical laws should be the same in all inertial reference frames. In other words, there is no such thing as an absolute motion.
Here I want to apply this simple principle of the absence of the […]

Also filed in Commodities, Economics, Finance, Interest rates, Investing, Oil & Gas | | Comments (18)

Junk bond market review

Saturday, July 19, 2008

I’m just back from vacation and I’d like to publish something lite as a warm up, before I catch up with the news. I would like to make some trivial observations on the junk bond market.

Also filed in Economics, Interest rates, Investing, Kondratieff wave | | Comments (8)

K-wave: monetary base and interest rates

Thursday, June 26, 2008

In the previous article we’ve established the existence of the extra-long debt cycle, which consists of the accumulation and unwinding phases. The next step is to evaluate the trends in monetary aggregates and interest rates.
For reference, let’s repeat the Great Debt Cycle, i.e. debt/GDP cycle chart that we saw before:

This credit cycle is called Kodratieff […]

Also filed in Economics, Finance, Interest rates, Kondratieff wave | | Comments (19)

Patience and Trading

Monday, June 2, 2008

I want to invite you to discuss your personal experience with the importance of being patient in your trading. Whenever I look back on my past trades, first of all I can modestly admit that the vast majority of them is directionally correct (otherwise I’d be better out of this endeavor), but secondly I observe […]

Also filed in Economics, Investing | | Comments (11)

How interest rates work

Tuesday, May 13, 2008

This is the second part of the article “Where is my recession?“. We’ve stopped at examining the bull arguments that the worst for the economy is likely to be over. The first argument is that the interest rates are well below the level at the start of the previous recessions.

Also filed in Economics, Finance, Investing | | Comments (5)

Where is my recession?

Thursday, May 1, 2008

1. The expectations are running high
The week of April 28 Barron’s ran a cover story “The Bulls are Back”.

AND NOW, FOR SOME GOOD NEWS: THE OTHER SHOE isn’t going to drop. After a winter of discontent marked by massive write-offs on Wall Street and a wilting economy on Main, America’s portfolio managers have declared that […]

Also filed in Economics, Finance, Investing | | Comments (1)