The principle of relativity, from Newtonian mechanics to Einstein/Lorentz/Poincaré theory of special relativity, has its roots in the basic principle that physical laws should be the same in all inertial reference frames. In other words, there is no such thing as an absolute motion.
Here I want to apply this simple principle of the absence of the […]
Thursday, August 14, 2008
The latest podcast with David Goldman is, as usual, pretty grim. He has very casual, calm style of talking, thanks to the host, Tom Keen, who is always extremely friendly and careful with anyone, from the most insane optimist saying that the economy is about to accelerate big time to the economists that are practically […]
The next installment of Kondratyev wave (table of content is here) is about Paul Volcker and the transition from Summer to Autumn.
The next article from the Kondratyev wave cycle (table of contents) is about Summer, the season when the unwelcome inflation develops and the stock market is in a bearish trend.
As the primary Guinea Pig for examining the K-wave is theUnited States I will avoid using the term hyperinflation, as back in 1970s US economy did […]
The spectacular growth of Chinese economy in recent years (well above 10% of Y/Y GDP increase) is making the analysts to be very shy with any predictions that are not 100% rosy. Some famous hedge fund managers are making their kids to learn Chinese, others are competing with predictions when China will surpass US as […]
Bernanke had spent June by draining the outstanding credit of Federal Reserve (check WSE for details). Maybe it was to punish hedge funds for oil speculation, maybe to scare investors from stocks to bond. The economy is suffocating from very expensive credit. By moving the yield on “risk-free” (explanation later) credit down the Feds are […]
After the introduction of the seasons of the Kondratyev wave we’ve proved the existence of the extra-long secular cycles that manifest themselves as the periodic swings in the relative debt level, monetary base, and stock market. But the more complicated task is to actually analyze the causation of those cycles.
The human mind is a very curious thing. People say one never learn something on someone else mistakes. The same way the human mind apparently just can’t grasp a pure concept until it’s experienced from the first hands. You can watch in the movies, read, talk about wars, inflation, flooding, fire, civil disorders, raising kids […]
The previous two posts on the Kondratiev Wave discussed the debt cycle and monetary base as the basis of the K-wave cycle. The goal of those articles is to show that there is nothing magical in the fact that the economy is experiencing secular cycles with the duration of 50+ years. In fact it’s not […]
Many economists are closely watching China as the primary driving force behind the world economic growth and the commodities bubble. The alarm that this last bubble is about to pop was ringing several times in the last two years, but so far it proved to be a false alarm, and the commodities bubble resumed its […]
The Yellow Brick Road
