The principle of relativity, from Newtonian mechanics to Einstein/Lorentz/Poincaré theory of special relativity, has its roots in the basic principle that physical laws should be the same in all inertial reference frames. In other words, there is no such thing as an absolute motion.
Here I want to apply this simple principle of the absence of the […]
Thursday, August 14, 2008
The latest podcast with David Goldman is, as usual, pretty grim. He has very casual, calm style of talking, thanks to the host, Tom Keen, who is always extremely friendly and careful with anyone, from the most insane optimist saying that the economy is about to accelerate big time to the economists that are practically […]
Here I’m trying to make several observations that hint the medium-term stock market distribution had started, when smart money are selling stocks to Cramer minions.
Do you have a feeling that something big is happening? I do.
The last year was amazing. Today is exactly a year since the biggest financial crisis in 25 years had started, and we are still posting the GDP growth and there is no recession, at least on TV. The big hairy hand from abroad is […]
The next installment of Kondratyev wave (table of content is here) is about Paul Volcker and the transition from Summer to Autumn.
Today I was asked to quantify my ambiguous statements that you can kiss the stockmarket goodbye but at the same time we avoided the off-the-cliff crash, thanks to Bernanke efforts. So I’ve decided to put a chart under this.
The next article from the Kondratyev wave cycle (table of contents) is about Summer, the season when the unwelcome inflation develops and the stock market is in a bearish trend.
As the primary Guinea Pig for examining the K-wave is theUnited States I will avoid using the term hyperinflation, as back in 1970s US economy did […]
Martin Pring just published a very nice report on commodities, with tons of good charts and also a lot of fundamentals. What I like in his approach (and what I’m usually trying to do myself) is that he is usually finding the way to chart the fundamentals as well. For example, the rate of change […]
The spectacular growth of Chinese economy in recent years (well above 10% of Y/Y GDP increase) is making the analysts to be very shy with any predictions that are not 100% rosy. Some famous hedge fund managers are making their kids to learn Chinese, others are competing with predictions when China will surpass US as […]
In this podcast Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at Global Insight Inc. is throwing out some surprising research. The most interesting bullet points are:
Q2′08 GDP in US is +2.5% (who would imagine!)
Q4′08 is negative
Q2′08 GDP in Eurozone is already going negative, by their estimates (wow!)
US headline inflation will reach +6.5% sometimes during this year
US headline inflation […]
The Yellow Brick Road
