The next installment of Kondratyev wave (table of content is here) is about Paul Volcker and the transition from Summer to Autumn.
Today I was asked to quantify my ambiguous statements that you can kiss the stockmarket goodbye but at the same time we avoided the off-the-cliff crash, thanks to Bernanke efforts. So I’ve decided to put a chart under this.
The next article from the Kondratyev wave cycle (table of contents) is about Summer, the season when the unwelcome inflation develops and the stock market is in a bearish trend.
As the primary Guinea Pig for examining the K-wave is theUnited States I will avoid using the term hyperinflation, as back in 1970s US economy did […]
Martin Pring just published a very nice report on commodities, with tons of good charts and also a lot of fundamentals. What I like in his approach (and what I’m usually trying to do myself) is that he is usually finding the way to chart the fundamentals as well. For example, the rate of change […]
The spectacular growth of Chinese economy in recent years (well above 10% of Y/Y GDP increase) is making the analysts to be very shy with any predictions that are not 100% rosy. Some famous hedge fund managers are making their kids to learn Chinese, others are competing with predictions when China will surpass US as […]
In this podcast Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at Global Insight Inc. is throwing out some surprising research. The most interesting bullet points are:
Q2′08 GDP in US is +2.5% (who would imagine!)
Q4′08 is negative
Q2′08 GDP in Eurozone is already going negative, by their estimates (wow!)
US headline inflation will reach +6.5% sometimes during this year
US headline inflation […]
I’m just back from vacation and I’d like to publish something lite as a warm up, before I catch up with the news. I would like to make some trivial observations on the junk bond market.
Bernanke had spent June by draining the outstanding credit of Federal Reserve (check WSE for details). Maybe it was to punish hedge funds for oil speculation, maybe to scare investors from stocks to bond. The economy is suffocating from very expensive credit. By moving the yield on “risk-free” (explanation later) credit down the Feds are […]
Today’s run confirmed that yesterday was a well- [or not too well] set short-term bottom. The financial stocks that strongly indicated a possibility of a top back in May led the way today with 7.6% run in $BKX.
After the introduction of the seasons of the Kondratyev wave we’ve proved the existence of the extra-long secular cycles that manifest themselves as the periodic swings in the relative debt level, monetary base, and stock market. But the more complicated task is to actually analyze the causation of those cycles.
The Yellow Brick Road
