The previous two posts on the Kondratiev Wave discussed the debt cycle and monetary base as the basis of the K-wave cycle. The goal of those articles is to show that there is nothing magical in the fact that the economy is experiencing secular cycles with the duration of 50+ years. In fact it’s not […]
Many economists are closely watching China as the primary driving force behind the world economic growth and the commodities bubble. The alarm that this last bubble is about to pop was ringing several times in the last two years, but so far it proved to be a false alarm, and the commodities bubble resumed its […]
In the previous article we’ve established the existence of the extra-long debt cycle, which consists of the accumulation and unwinding phases. The next step is to evaluate the trends in monetary aggregates and interest rates.
For reference, let’s repeat the Great Debt Cycle, i.e. debt/GDP cycle chart that we saw before:
This credit cycle is called Kodratieff […]
In the late 90’s a lot of banking clerks and bartenders with some brain quickly completed the Cobol courses to become programmers - new cool profession that already drained anyone with at least some computing experience into dot-com bubble and Y2k bubble. Then what one would call a “creative destruction” happened and a lot of […]
The future is pretty muddy now, which leaves some hope yet fears of invisible demons. One of the key features of the market economy that is important to keep in mind is that it is constantly healing itself, sometimes by few pills, sometimes by amputation. And the lack of pain and medication may hide a […]
The monoline bond insurers are back into headlines, for the countless time this year. The more it happens the more this history resembles a farce rather then tragedy, this time it was especially funny after the bond insurer Ambac decided to fire Fitch one of its rating agencies:
Fitch went honest and refused to be cowed […]
Even though we live in a service economy the industrial sector is still the cornerstone it lies upon, and today’s economic news are hinting that the sharp downturn is ahead.
Today the market had a happy day with 1.5% increase of S&P 500 and 5.6% increase of broker-dealer index (IAI). But something bad is happening with small regional banks. Today the KRE index was down 1.9%.
The fabric of World Financial System is mostly beyond the understanding of public media. When mumbling fools from CNBC are on that topic it looks like a blind trying to explain the color of rose to the deaf. Not that I know much more, but at least I’m a regular watcher of professional economists and […]
At this time about half of the rebate checks is already received. Let share any information that we have on how well (or not so well) the stimulus is, er, stimulating the economy. First of all, you can hear all the politicians and officials to say that they hope that the stimulus checks will be […]
The Yellow Brick Road
