Comments on: The seasonality of carrots http://yellowroad.wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/2008/05/15/the-seasonality-of-carrots/ The Wall Street Examiner Wed, 20 Aug 2008 14:53:16 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.3.3 By: Andy Bebut http://yellowroad.wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/2008/05/15/the-seasonality-of-carrots/#comment-62 Andy Bebut Sat, 17 May 2008 04:06:48 +0000 http://yellowroad.wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/2008/05/15/the-seasonality-of-carrots/#comment-62 I think Spain problems will only bring some minor weakness to euro they don't mind anyway. I think for Europe it will be just a regular mild recession, one of many. I think Spain problems will only bring some minor weakness to euro they don’t mind anyway. I think for Europe it will be just a regular mild recession, one of many.

]]> By: John http://yellowroad.wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/2008/05/15/the-seasonality-of-carrots/#comment-61 John Sat, 17 May 2008 00:43:12 +0000 http://yellowroad.wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/2008/05/15/the-seasonality-of-carrots/#comment-61 Re: If EU members do leave its likely to result in the complete break up of the Union as one by one, countries separate. The point of the Euro was bring stability and make international trade easier. And, instability would make the dollar stronger again. Wouldn't it be amazing if a housing loan bubble split-up the EU, causing the world-wide slime to buy protection dollars. HA! Almost too funny to think about. It would be fun to read the history of this era in 100 years if THAT happened. “… the American future preserved by the Herculean efforts of Ben Bernanke and the greatest president in history John McCain …” John will win, btw. No way on earth the largest racial group in the US is going to vote for “one of THOSE people”. They’re STILL pissed off about the civil rights movement and “those liberal democrats!!” (and day hate da troops TOO!!!) Re: If EU members do leave its likely to result in the complete break up of the Union as one by one, countries separate. The point of the Euro was bring stability and make international trade easier.

And, instability would make the dollar stronger again. Wouldn’t it be amazing if a housing loan bubble split-up the EU, causing the world-wide slime to buy protection dollars. HA! Almost too funny to think about. It would be fun to read the history of this era in 100 years if THAT happened. “… the American future preserved by the Herculean efforts of Ben Bernanke and the greatest president in history John McCain …”

John will win, btw. No way on earth the largest racial group in the US is going to vote for “one of THOSE people”. They’re STILL pissed off about the civil rights movement and “those liberal democrats!!” (and day hate da troops TOO!!!)

]]> By: TechGuy http://yellowroad.wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/2008/05/15/the-seasonality-of-carrots/#comment-58 TechGuy Fri, 16 May 2008 21:35:47 +0000 http://yellowroad.wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/2008/05/15/the-seasonality-of-carrots/#comment-58 "Question: Do you think it would make Euro stronger or weaker if Spain, for example, dropped out?" I really don't know. I think the Euro stability really depends on how good or how bad its export market holds up. If exports some how remain strong (ie Global decoupling), the Euro will probably strengthen whether Spain stays or leaves the EU. Another important factor is how the credit crunch will affect them. One of the reasons why the Euro stopped\paused rising is because of credit concerns. If EU members do leave its likely to result in the complete break up of the Union as one by one, countries separate. The point of the Euro was bring stability and make international trade easier. "However, I would like to point out that Citigroup is not selling off level 3 assets: they are selling off prime, profitable, retail operations." Well I haven't see any statment that specificially states the sale of "level 3", but nor have I seen any statements that excludes them from "asset sales". I have to assume that they would be selling them. “Question: Do you think it would make Euro stronger or weaker if Spain, for example, dropped out?”

I really don’t know. I think the Euro stability really depends on how good or how bad its export market holds up. If exports some how remain strong (ie Global decoupling), the Euro will probably strengthen whether Spain stays or leaves the EU.
Another important factor is how the credit crunch will affect them. One of the reasons why the Euro stopped\paused rising is because of credit concerns.

If EU members do leave its likely to result in the complete break up of the Union as one by one, countries separate. The point of the Euro was bring stability and make international trade easier.

“However, I would like to point out that Citigroup is not selling off level 3 assets: they are selling off prime, profitable, retail operations.”

Well I haven’t see any statment that specificially states the sale of “level 3″, but nor have I seen any statements that excludes them from “asset sales”. I have to assume that they would be selling them.

]]> By: Andy Bebut http://yellowroad.wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/2008/05/15/the-seasonality-of-carrots/#comment-52 Andy Bebut Fri, 16 May 2008 19:18:31 +0000 http://yellowroad.wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/2008/05/15/the-seasonality-of-carrots/#comment-52 Oh no, they ARE selling level-3 assets, just for from home: http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Citibank-sells-A500-mln-RMBS-to-21-investors-EP879?OpenDocument They hope we won't notice? :-) Oh no, they ARE selling level-3 assets, just for from home:

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Citibank-sells-A500-mln-RMBS-to-21-investors-EP879?OpenDocument

They hope we won’t notice? :-)

]]> By: Obfuscation http://yellowroad.wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/2008/05/15/the-seasonality-of-carrots/#comment-50 Obfuscation Fri, 16 May 2008 17:09:08 +0000 http://yellowroad.wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/2008/05/15/the-seasonality-of-carrots/#comment-50 Techguy: Great insights on OPEC, mortgage bailout, and EU! Question: Do you think it would make Euro stronger or weaker if Spain, for example, dropped out? Re: banks and accounting. You may very well be correct that banks will fail if they cannot stand on strict accounting principles. I'm also inclined to agree that it would be less harmful to the economy if banks failed one at a time and not all at once. However, I would like to point out that Citigroup is not selling off level 3 assets: they are selling off prime, profitable, retail operations. Maybe the banks shouldn't fail all at once, but if they are insolvent, keeping them on life support, draining the life of teh living will also be a disaster. Techguy:
Great insights on OPEC, mortgage bailout, and EU!

Question: Do you think it would make Euro stronger or weaker if Spain, for example, dropped out?

Re: banks and accounting.
You may very well be correct that banks will fail if they cannot stand on strict accounting principles. I’m also inclined to agree that it would be less harmful to the economy if banks failed one at a time and not all at once.

However, I would like to point out that Citigroup is not selling off level 3 assets: they are selling off prime, profitable, retail operations.
Maybe the banks shouldn’t fail all at once, but if they are insolvent, keeping them on life support, draining the life of teh living will also be a disaster.

]]> By: Andy Bebut http://yellowroad.wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/2008/05/15/the-seasonality-of-carrots/#comment-49 Andy Bebut Fri, 16 May 2008 17:08:28 +0000 http://yellowroad.wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/2008/05/15/the-seasonality-of-carrots/#comment-49 While this site was created only a week ago the readership is picking up. I've had 103 visitors today and 247 visitors yesterday. The particular addresses of visitors are NOT visible to me and are not stored anywhere. Thanks a lot! While this site was created only a week ago the readership is picking up. I’ve had 103 visitors today and 247 visitors yesterday. The particular addresses of visitors are NOT visible to me and are not stored anywhere.

Thanks a lot!

]]> By: Andy Bebut http://yellowroad.wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/2008/05/15/the-seasonality-of-carrots/#comment-48 Andy Bebut Fri, 16 May 2008 16:34:02 +0000 http://yellowroad.wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/2008/05/15/the-seasonality-of-carrots/#comment-48 This comment was pending for moderation, just made visible: http://yellowroad.wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/2008/05/15/the-seasonality-of-carrots/#comment-37 This comment was pending for moderation, just made visible:

http://yellowroad.wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/2008/05/15/the-seasonality-of-carrots/#comment-37

]]> By: Andy Bebut http://yellowroad.wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/2008/05/15/the-seasonality-of-carrots/#comment-47 Andy Bebut Fri, 16 May 2008 16:09:10 +0000 http://yellowroad.wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/2008/05/15/the-seasonality-of-carrots/#comment-47 Volatility itself is very volatile lately. VIX is jumping 7%-9% up and down. Is there any way to plot the volatility of volatility, could be quite useful to have a chart like that. Volatility itself is very volatile lately. VIX is jumping 7%-9% up and down. Is there any way to plot the volatility of volatility, could be quite useful to have a chart like that.

]]> By: eah http://yellowroad.wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/2008/05/15/the-seasonality-of-carrots/#comment-43 eah Fri, 16 May 2008 10:42:19 +0000 http://yellowroad.wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/2008/05/15/the-seasonality-of-carrots/#comment-43 #13 <i>It sickens me,...</i> Yes. I'm hoping karma shitcans those bastards. Unfortunately I'm mostly still waiting... #13

It sickens me,…

Yes. I’m hoping karma shitcans those bastards. Unfortunately I’m mostly still waiting…

]]> By: ron http://yellowroad.wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/2008/05/15/the-seasonality-of-carrots/#comment-40 ron Fri, 16 May 2008 03:09:25 +0000 http://yellowroad.wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/2008/05/15/the-seasonality-of-carrots/#comment-40 The other trend in Ag of interest is the entire cost of production given the steep rise in basic imput cost of energy and pestcides. If we go back a few years to the 50's & 60's it was the introduction and large scale application of nitrogen and pestcides that created our Ag miracle which significantly pushed up production and . We may be reaching another tipping point in AG production whereby the higher imput cost of energy negates the benefits of massive energy intensive farming. The 160 acre farm that has been replaced by the 5000 acre farm may see in life in the coming years but the cost for food would still be high as the leverage gained from cheap energy is lost. The other trend in Ag of interest is the entire cost of production given the steep rise in basic imput cost of energy and pestcides. If we go back a few years to the 50’s & 60’s it was the introduction and large scale application of nitrogen and pestcides that created our Ag miracle which significantly pushed up production and .
We may be reaching another tipping point in AG production whereby the higher imput cost of energy negates the benefits of massive energy intensive farming. The 160 acre farm that has been replaced by the 5000 acre farm may see in life in the coming years but the cost for food would still be high
as the leverage gained from cheap energy is lost.

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