Comments on: Market over the hill? http://yellowroad.wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/2008/05/13/market-over-the-hill/ The Wall Street Examiner Wed, 20 Aug 2008 14:48:19 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.3.3 By: The Yellow Brick Road › Patience and Trading http://yellowroad.wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/2008/05/13/market-over-the-hill/#comment-226 The Yellow Brick Road › Patience and Trading Tue, 03 Jun 2008 02:47:37 +0000 http://yellowroad.wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/2008/05/13/market-over-the-hill/#comment-226 [...] about the level of confidence about a medium-term top? I think it works the same.  At May 13 I was able to come with correct signal that the market is expected to top, but I was not that confident in my finding and yes, I was [...] […] about the level of confidence about a medium-term top? I think it works the same.  At May 13 I was able to come with correct signal that the market is expected to top, but I was not that confident in my finding and yes, I was […]

]]> By: Sweden http://yellowroad.wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/2008/05/13/market-over-the-hill/#comment-41 Sweden Fri, 16 May 2008 09:17:54 +0000 http://yellowroad.wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/2008/05/13/market-over-the-hill/#comment-41 Thera are obviosly many ways to look at the market. Read this article at The market Oracle. S&P Developing Bullish Pattern, While Crude Oil Still Refuses to Rest http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article4722.html Personaly I am short the market but it hurts! The VIX at 16 signals that something will happen soon! Thera are obviosly many ways to look at the market.

Read this article at The market Oracle.

S&P Developing Bullish Pattern, While Crude Oil Still Refuses to Rest

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article4722.html

Personaly I am short the market but it hurts! The VIX at 16 signals that something will happen soon!

]]> By: eah http://yellowroad.wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/2008/05/13/market-over-the-hill/#comment-21 eah Thu, 15 May 2008 09:43:48 +0000 http://yellowroad.wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/2008/05/13/market-over-the-hill/#comment-21 <i>My guess that the market is rolling over remains unshaken after today action.</i> That makes one of us. At this point I have just seen too many occasions when this market has come back from the dead. So I am still in 'I will believe it only when I see it' mode. But this just means I may miss the beginning (and likely the end) of a move, so profits might not be maximized. Big deal. The main thing is to make money, and sometimes the best way to do that is by avoiding losing it. My guess that the market is rolling over remains unshaken after today action.

That makes one of us. At this point I have just seen too many occasions when this market has come back from the dead. So I am still in ‘I will believe it only when I see it’ mode. But this just means I may miss the beginning (and likely the end) of a move, so profits might not be maximized. Big deal. The main thing is to make money, and sometimes the best way to do that is by avoiding losing it.

]]> By: cwd http://yellowroad.wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/2008/05/13/market-over-the-hill/#comment-20 cwd Thu, 15 May 2008 01:44:13 +0000 http://yellowroad.wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/2008/05/13/market-over-the-hill/#comment-20 I am glad to see you blogging here. I am glad to see you blogging here.

]]> By: Andy Bebut http://yellowroad.wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/2008/05/13/market-over-the-hill/#comment-15 Andy Bebut Wed, 14 May 2008 20:13:30 +0000 http://yellowroad.wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/2008/05/13/market-over-the-hill/#comment-15 My guess that the market is rolling over remains unshaken after today action. The S&P topped at 1420 intraday, short of 1422 maximum two weeks ago and bounced back. Volatility index made an intraday low of 16.19 (probably a glitch related to coming option expirations but anyway), which is quite lower than 17.97 posted May 2. So record low volatility does not produce record prices. Not good. The KRE (index of regioanl banks) declined by 0.38%. Small regional banks are the bones of the mainstreet economy. It's not a rally and it's not a recovery if they are down. Finally, the bonds started very well today but ended with another decline. I think the chart looks very bad. It seems to me that today rally was just money rotating from stocks into bonds. By doing that they shoot the economy into the foot My guess that the market is rolling over remains unshaken after today action.

The S&P topped at 1420 intraday, short of 1422 maximum two weeks ago and bounced back. Volatility
index made an intraday low of 16.19 (probably a glitch related to coming option expirations but
anyway), which is quite lower than 17.97 posted May 2. So record low volatility does not
produce record prices. Not good.

The KRE (index of regioanl banks) declined by 0.38%. Small regional banks are the bones of the
mainstreet economy. It’s not a rally and it’s not a recovery if they are down.

Finally, the bonds started very well today but ended with another decline. I think the chart looks very bad.
It seems to me that today rally was just money rotating from stocks into bonds. By doing that they shoot the
economy into the foot

]]> By: Andy Bebut http://yellowroad.wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/2008/05/13/market-over-the-hill/#comment-14 Andy Bebut Wed, 14 May 2008 14:20:23 +0000 http://yellowroad.wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/2008/05/13/market-over-the-hill/#comment-14 Thanks Ron! Also thanks to coolienne, Darth Toll, Akacoat, Shankar Khadye, eh, Sweden and all Swedish people, Justenuf2bdangerous, Kimo and all others! Thanks Ron! Also thanks to coolienne, Darth Toll, Akacoat, Shankar Khadye, eh, Sweden and all Swedish people, Justenuf2bdangerous, Kimo and all others!

]]> By: Andy Bebut http://yellowroad.wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/2008/05/13/market-over-the-hill/#comment-13 Andy Bebut Wed, 14 May 2008 14:11:57 +0000 http://yellowroad.wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/2008/05/13/market-over-the-hill/#comment-13 Today T-bills (as measured by TLH) bounced up again, but only partually compensating for yesterday crash. The chart can be viewed as a potential head-and-shoulders but the price is bouncing around the neckline for two weeks already. I'm pretty sure that the smartest brains at PPT are scratching their heads every morning to find out how to prop up the bonds. They read the charts very well. Today T-bills (as measured by TLH) bounced up again, but only partually compensating for yesterday crash. The chart can be viewed as a potential head-and-shoulders but the price is bouncing around the neckline for two weeks already. I’m pretty sure that the smartest brains at PPT are scratching their heads every morning to find out how to prop up the bonds. They read the charts very well.

]]> By: ron http://yellowroad.wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/2008/05/13/market-over-the-hill/#comment-12 ron Wed, 14 May 2008 14:07:40 +0000 http://yellowroad.wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/2008/05/13/market-over-the-hill/#comment-12 Hey Roxy, glad to see Doc has invited you to start a page, good decision on his part. Hey Roxy, glad to see Doc has invited you to start a page, good decision on his part.

]]> By: Andy Bebut http://yellowroad.wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/2008/05/13/market-over-the-hill/#comment-11 Andy Bebut Wed, 14 May 2008 13:53:06 +0000 http://yellowroad.wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/2008/05/13/market-over-the-hill/#comment-11 Libor is bogus? We all recall that few weeks ago there was a scandal that Libor is misreported as some banks were quoting below their actual borrowing costs. Let me remind that Libor is made by just phone or mail quote from several banks. Now the next problem is that the number of reporting banks is going down. Some time ago there were 16 banks, now only 5 banks. So if 11 banks can't or don't want to get a credit for some reason (maybe they don't like the terms?) - is the quote from only 5 banks enough to make a benchmark the world is looking at? Let me remind that most of the adjusted-rate mortgages in US are benchmarked against Libor. Millions of people financial health depends on some Mr. Roberts who can or can't get a credit. My source is bloomberg radio, few days ago. Libor is bogus?

We all recall that few weeks ago there was a scandal that Libor is misreported as some banks were quoting below their actual borrowing costs. Let me remind that Libor is made by just phone or mail quote from several banks.

Now the next problem is that the number of reporting banks is going down. Some time ago there were 16 banks, now only 5 banks. So if 11 banks can’t or don’t want to get a credit for some reason (maybe they don’t like the terms?) - is the quote from only 5 banks enough to make a benchmark the world is looking at?

Let me remind that most of the adjusted-rate mortgages in US are benchmarked against Libor. Millions of people financial health depends on some Mr. Roberts who can or can’t get a credit.

My source is bloomberg radio, few days ago.

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