Some of my recent posts were dedicated to the speculative nature of the recent commodities run-ups. To offset the possible bearish bias I want to re-post some of the very wise comments made by the readers of my old blog in the past months.
As interest rates jumped off the bed this week it doesn’t seem to me that Ben is trying to move them back. My personal opinion is that Fed’s power to change interest rates is very limited. Just heard a guy on the Bloomberg podcast saying that right after the war dollar made pretty much 100% […]
It’s time to revisit Treasuries as they finally seem to have hit the fan. I went bullish treasury bonds at July 12 ‘07, then I declared that I’m getting out in March. Today the chart looks especially bad:
Click to enlarge
It seems that it broke all possible necklines in H&S pattern and went below 200 […]
“the investment desert is littered with the bones of those who bet on new paradigms” - Jeremy Grantham
It must be something unusual to happen to bring the attention. Few years ago I heard a story that Africa is considering to switch to wireless telephony because peasants are stealing wires for copper and any attempt to […]
This is the third installment of the article “Where is my recession?“. In the previous article “How interest rates work” we discussed that there the risk aversion resulted into a sharp decline in the cost of Treasury and GSE paper borrowings while the private debt is not so popular among investors. This time I want […]
Divergences between the financials and the market as a whole often provide a leading indication as to what may lie ahead in the market. The following charts illustrate what has happened in the past when these divergences have occurred.
Couple of weeks ago fredw asked me to create a discussion thread to share investment ideas related to world’s food and resource shortages. Right away, I want to refute potential accusations that we want to make money on someone starvation. It would be immoral to buy and hide food from starving people, but investments help […]
In this post I want to focus on some different issues related to each other only by the fact that they depend on some temporary, non-recurring factors. This is an invitation for discussion and I will gladly accept additional contributions.1. Apparently presidential elections make it impossible for the Federal Reserve to make additional tweaks in the […]
There are signs in the charts that an aging rally may be over the hill. I’m not a good chartist, so my points must be viewed as a proposal for discussion, not action.
This is the second part of the article “Where is my recession?“. We’ve stopped at examining the bull arguments that the worst for the economy is likely to be over. The first argument is that the interest rates are well below the level at the start of the previous recessions.
The Yellow Brick Road
